There is the blind turning to one side when the unpleasantry from ideas once sound turns to ruin.
The Green religion is really failing to step up to the plate on this one.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/17/why-stefan-the-stork-died-in-vain-wind-turbines/
Monday, August 17, 2015
I think I will put a bit of my thinking, reactions and ideas here instead of bugging a lot of friends on Face book who sensibly arn't taken with these kind of notions
Heres an extract from a magazine I ran in the nineties.
http://www.informationlode.com/netwatch/ 28 May edition 1997
Still waiting for the idea to be taken up
From this I postulated there was a great industry coming where bored housewives in Murmansk could use the Internet to monitor security installations in Chicago, factories with cameras mounted watching the premises wired to a site which measured movement and reported to Olga when something was afoot. Well from the land of frozen haddock comes a curious Internet site.
Enterprising hackers in Norway set up a Web cam and aimed it at the door of an alleged establishment of salubrious entertainment ("horehus", in Norwegian). The object of the exercise is to show that with a $75 Web cam and a Net link, you can keep public tabs on what or whomever you like without permission or knowledge. Netsurfers Gazette
www.sel.ikke.no/horer/
Heres an extract from a magazine I ran in the nineties.
http://www.informationlode.com/netwatch/ 28 May edition 1997
Still waiting for the idea to be taken up
A whole new industry?
Some days you feel your six months ahead of the rest of the world. You recall the Internet site where some lazy students (the worlds greatest inventions are by lazy people wanting an easier easy - C Benz) located a camera facing their coke machine in the dorm basement and used the Internet to see if it still contained cans.From this I postulated there was a great industry coming where bored housewives in Murmansk could use the Internet to monitor security installations in Chicago, factories with cameras mounted watching the premises wired to a site which measured movement and reported to Olga when something was afoot. Well from the land of frozen haddock comes a curious Internet site.
Enterprising hackers in Norway set up a Web cam and aimed it at the door of an alleged establishment of salubrious entertainment ("horehus", in Norwegian). The object of the exercise is to show that with a $75 Web cam and a Net link, you can keep public tabs on what or whomever you like without permission or knowledge. Netsurfers Gazette
www.sel.ikke.no/horer/
My My such a long time between posts
Life goes on.
Still wrestling with complex systems.
Economics is interesting in this area as is Climate Models.
Making progress.
All the more reason for heuristic explorations. Poke it with a stick and write down the results.
Sir Francis Bacon was not wrong.
Found an ex IBM anthropologist taking the same approach as I decided years ago.
Curiously I met him once.
I am surprised to find have the same difficulties semi physical sciences with the verification and validity of models.
I found this example of chasing down Von Neuman's elephant. Wonderful story, as told by Fermi to Dyson and recited by Feynman. Trying to add Shrodingers cat to my cat stories. elusive. On a Lewis Carroll note what if Schrodinger's cat, Von Neuman's elephant and Nassim Taleb's Black swans had a round table discussion. Might give us caution about what certainty we attach to what we think we know.
http://wavefunction.fieldofscience.com/2015/02/derek-lowe-to-world-beware-of-von.html
Life goes on.
Still wrestling with complex systems.
Economics is interesting in this area as is Climate Models.
Making progress.
All the more reason for heuristic explorations. Poke it with a stick and write down the results.
Sir Francis Bacon was not wrong.
Found an ex IBM anthropologist taking the same approach as I decided years ago.
Curiously I met him once.
I am surprised to find have the same difficulties semi physical sciences with the verification and validity of models.
I found this example of chasing down Von Neuman's elephant. Wonderful story, as told by Fermi to Dyson and recited by Feynman. Trying to add Shrodingers cat to my cat stories. elusive. On a Lewis Carroll note what if Schrodinger's cat, Von Neuman's elephant and Nassim Taleb's Black swans had a round table discussion. Might give us caution about what certainty we attach to what we think we know.
And making elephants dance is indeed what modeling in drug discovery runs the risk of doing, especially when you keep on adding parameters to improve the fit (Ah, the pleasures of the Internet - turns out you can literally fit an elephant to a curve). This applies to all models, whether they deal with docking, molecular dynamics or cheminformatics. This problem of overfitting is well-recognized, but researchers don't always run the right tests to get rid of it. As Derek pointed out however, the problem is certainly not unique to drug discovery. He started out by describing the presence of "rare" events in finance related to currency fluctuations - these rare events happen often enough and their magnitude is devastating enough to cause major damage. Yet the models never captured them, and this failure was responsible at least in part for the financial collapse of 2008 (this is well-documented in Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan"). - See
And
making elephants dance is indeed what modeling in drug discovery runs
the risk of doing, especially when you keep on adding parameters to
improve the fit (Ah, the pleasures of the Internet - turns out you can literally fit an elephant to a curve). This applies to all models, whether they deal with docking, molecular dynamics or cheminformatics. This problem of overfitting
is well-recognized, but researchers don't always run the right tests to
get rid of it. As Derek pointed out however, the problem is certainly
not unique to drug discovery. He started out by describing the presence
of "rare" events in finance related to currency fluctuations - these
rare events happen often enough and their magnitude is devastating
enough to cause major damage. Yet the models never captured them, and
this failure was responsible at least in part for the financial collapse
of 2008 (this is well-documented in Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan"). - See more at: http://wavefunction.fieldofscience.com/2015/02/derek-lowe-to-world-beware-of-von.html#sthash.J6lQ6pFg.dpuf
And
making elephants dance is indeed what modeling in drug discovery runs
the risk of doing, especially when you keep on adding parameters to
improve the fit (Ah, the pleasures of the Internet - turns out you can literally fit an elephant to a curve). This applies to all models, whether they deal with docking, molecular dynamics or cheminformatics. This problem of overfitting
is well-recognized, but researchers don't always run the right tests to
get rid of it. As Derek pointed out however, the problem is certainly
not unique to drug discovery. He started out by describing the presence
of "rare" events in finance related to currency fluctuations - these
rare events happen often enough and their magnitude is devastating
enough to cause major damage. Yet the models never captured them, and
this failure was responsible at least in part for the financial collapse
of 2008 (this is well-documented in Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan"). - See more at: http://wavefunction.fieldofscience.com/2015/02/derek-lowe-to-world-beware-of-von.html#sthash.J6lQ6pFg.dpuf
And
making elephants dance is indeed what modeling in drug discovery runs
the risk of doing, especially when you keep on adding parameters to
improve the fit (Ah, the pleasures of the Internet - turns out you can literally fit an elephant to a curve). This applies to all models, whether they deal with docking, molecular dynamics or cheminformatics. This problem of overfitting
is well-recognized, but researchers don't always run the right tests to
get rid of it. As Derek pointed out however, the problem is certainly
not unique to drug discovery. He started out by describing the presence
of "rare" events in finance related to currency fluctuations - these
rare events happen often enough and their magnitude is devastating
enough to cause major damage. Yet the models never captured them, and
this failure was responsible at least in part for the financial collapse
of 2008 (this is well-documented in Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan"). - See more at: http://wavefunction.fieldofscience.com/2015/02/derek-lowe-to-world-beware-of-von.html#sthash.J6lQ6pFg.dpuf
And
making elephants dance is indeed what modeling in drug discovery runs
the risk of doing, especially when you keep on adding parameters to
improve the fit (Ah, the pleasures of the Internet - turns out you can literally fit an elephant to a curve). This applies to all models, whether they deal with docking, molecular dynamics or cheminformatics. This problem of overfitting
is well-recognized, but researchers don't always run the right tests to
get rid of it. As Derek pointed out however, the problem is certainly
not unique to drug discovery. He started out by describing the presence
of "rare" events in finance related to currency fluctuations - these
rare events happen often enough and their magnitude is devastating
enough to cause major damage. Yet the models never captured them, and
this failure was responsible at least in part for the financial collapse
of 2008 (this is well-documented in Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan"). - See more at: http://wavefunction.fieldofscience.com/2015/02/derek-lowe-to-world-beware-of-von.html#sthash.J6lQ6pFg.dpuf
And
making elephants dance is indeed what modeling in drug discovery runs
the risk of doing, especially when you keep on adding parameters to
improve the fit (Ah, the pleasures of the Internet - turns out you can literally fit an elephant to a curve). This applies to all models, whether they deal with docking, molecular dynamics or cheminformatics. This problem of overfitting
is well-recognized, but researchers don't always run the right tests to
get rid of it. As Derek pointed out however, the problem is certainly
not unique to drug discovery. He started out by describing the presence
of "rare" events in finance related to currency fluctuations - these
rare events happen often enough and their magnitude is devastating
enough to cause major damage. Yet the models never captured them, and
this failure was responsible at least in part for the financial collapse
of 2008 (this is well-documented in Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan"). - See more at: http://wavefunction.fieldofscience.com/2015/02/derek-lowe-to-world-beware-of-von.html#sthash.J6lQ6pFg.dpuf
http://wavefunction.fieldofscience.com/2015/02/derek-lowe-to-world-beware-of-von.html
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
The hollowing out of Labour/Labor
From todays Australian Newspaper
Ring any bells
"The Labor apparatus is a superb, slick, clever machine for delivering jobs and patronage to its supporters.
Certain unions exercise disproportionate influence over its deliberations and safe seats are now rotten boroughs doled out to reward faithful apparatchiks.
The branches are moribund and no longer have a genuine say in policy or candidate selection.
No wonder young, energetic idealists and activists of the Left are flooding into the Greens and GetUp!"
Ring any bells
"The Labor apparatus is a superb, slick, clever machine for delivering jobs and patronage to its supporters.
Certain unions exercise disproportionate influence over its deliberations and safe seats are now rotten boroughs doled out to reward faithful apparatchiks.
The branches are moribund and no longer have a genuine say in policy or candidate selection.
No wonder young, energetic idealists and activists of the Left are flooding into the Greens and GetUp!"
Monday, June 21, 2010
Thanks to the sanest man in Australian Journalism Andrew Bolt
US historian Shelby Steele on the slow death of the West:
One reason for this is that the entire Western world has suffered from a deficit of moral authority for decades now.
Today we in the West are reluctant to use our full military might in war lest we seem imperialistic; we hesitate to enforce our borders lest we seem racist; we are reluctant to ask for assimilation from new immigrants lest we seem xenophobic; and we are pained to give Western Civilization primacy in our educational curricula lest we seem supremacist.
Today the West lives on the defensive, the very legitimacy of our modern societies requiring constant dissociation from the sins of the Western past—racism, economic exploitation, imperialism and so on."
Just do not have the bottle to defend the enlightenment
Wonder if they know what living in an unlightened society is like.
US historian Shelby Steele on the slow death of the West:
One reason for this is that the entire Western world has suffered from a deficit of moral authority for decades now.
Today we in the West are reluctant to use our full military might in war lest we seem imperialistic; we hesitate to enforce our borders lest we seem racist; we are reluctant to ask for assimilation from new immigrants lest we seem xenophobic; and we are pained to give Western Civilization primacy in our educational curricula lest we seem supremacist.
Today the West lives on the defensive, the very legitimacy of our modern societies requiring constant dissociation from the sins of the Western past—racism, economic exploitation, imperialism and so on."
Just do not have the bottle to defend the enlightenment
Wonder if they know what living in an unlightened society is like.
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