Thursday, August 20, 2015

Just venting my spleen on the madness of models. The world is too complex for present day computers and human knowledge to think they can model multi multi multi (to the 900th variable) variable models of immensely complex systems. Economic/social/physical availibilty systems for a streat.

Because I am so old I remember the world before the madness of models began
Like the model which in 2007 said that the chance of a crash in the derivatives and credit debt swops was a one in a 50 year chance. MR Xi’s little bit of graphery. Honestly they bought the model and issued triple AAA credit worthy certificates to financial instruments they did not understand. That cost a few trillion and we have not really recovered from the problems when that model did not work out.
Then there’s the IPCC climate change model that has never been verified by past climate and never validated against current climate. So what happens. The temperature stopped climbing for the last 18 years whilst CO2 went up. Australia wastes billions on desalination plants that were mothballed on completion. Tim Flannerys little model said it was not going to rain. The seven year drought would continue forever.
South Australia, UK Ontario and Germany instituted insane wind farm construction on the basis of the climate model that does not work. Probably about a trillion down the gurgler on that model before its over.
So along comes these characters with their tax effects on smoking addiction conjectures in a cute little easily graphed model that has no connection with real life.
They keep getting out their slide rules and making stuff up. It has to be verified and validated. It hasn’t been tested in either direction.
Ireland still has high rates of smoking and high rates of tax. Sweden has the lowest rate of smoking in Europe and its not the tax. Spain has low tax and ordinary rates of smoking.
The tax governs smoking behaviour model is a dud.
Get over it. Start working on practical on the ground real programs like E cigarettes that have been proven to work in real life not in models.
Reminds me of the model where this bloke claimed that scientific socialism would make the world a workers paradise.
What was his name again.
How did that one work out.
How many trillions of effort, lives hopes and dreams were wasted on that model of society.
Intellectual model makers and graph fiddlers should be kept under leash and away from the lives of real people and most especially kept away from their wallets.

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